Understanding China—and the Cost of Not Paying Attention

A few years ago, I immersed myself in a deep study of China by reading Henry Kissinger’s influential book On China. It was an eye-opening experience that revealed just how layered, strategic, and patient Chinese leadership has been over the decades.

More recently, I took a closer look at Xi Jinping, China’s current president. His story is far more nuanced than most Americans realize.

Xi’s father, a high-ranking official in the Communist Party, was arrested and publicly humiliated during Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution. As a privileged youth, Xi Jinping also became a target of that same system. He was exiled to the countryside, stripped of status, and forced to live in a cave home.

There, among the villagers, he worked harder than he had ever worked in his life. That period shaped him—not into a bitter man, but into a cunning, calculated, and deeply strategic leader. He learned to survive, to adapt, and above all, to think long-term.

I’m confident that many of the experienced officials Trump fired—people with decades of diplomatic and military insight—understood China far better than he ever did. Trump’s business persona, for all the self-promotion, was largely built on shady practices, bending rules, and manipulating legal loopholes to his benefit.

That approach might work in the boardroom, but it does not translate to global diplomacy—especially when you’re dealing with a powerhouse like China.

In my opinion, China has been waiting for a moment like this. Hesitant at first, perhaps, but ultimately ready. Trump’s erratic posturing, tariffs, and rhetoric didn’t intimidate them—they exposed our strategic ignorance. And now, the Pandora’s box that Trump recklessly pried open is not one China seems inclined to close. If anything, they appear emboldened.

China’s rise from a nation once humiliated by Western powers to an economic and technological titan was not accidental. It was earned. Calculated. Intentional. And now, they demand to be taken seriously. Unfortunately, Trump never did. And now, here we are—facing a geopolitical reality we’re poorly equipped to manage.

It’s eerily reminiscent of the Vietnam War, where America misunderstood the resolve, culture, and psychological framework of the people it sought to control. We didn’t lose Vietnam because of a lack of firepower—we lost it because we never truly understood who we were up against. The same pattern is playing out today, just on a more complex, more dangerous stage.

To be clear, Trump has no proven track record of economic brilliance. Even during his presidency, he largely rode the coattails of President Obama’s economic recovery and tried to claim it as his own. Then came COVID—followed by chaos. His mishandling of the crisis, his threats against Dr. Fauci, the disinformation, the bizarre remedies—it all painted a picture of disarray, not leadership.

So here we are. Economically vulnerable, diplomatically strained, and locked in a dangerous dance with a nation we neither respect nor understand deeply enough.

And the scary part is—China does understand us.